Brent towards 80 dollars, energy reopens the risk of inflation
Oil returns to lead the markets this week. Brent returned to 80 dollars a barrel, rising to 79.31 dollars, while American WTI advanced to 74.62 dollars. The move comes after a renewed rise in tensions in the Gulf and a return to attention on the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most sensitive passages for global energy supplies.
When crude oil accelerates, the market immediately recalculates the inflation risk, especially in a phase in which central banks and investors were looking for confirmation on the fall in prices. Brent had fallen in the previous days to around 70 dollars, but the new rise erased part of the more relaxed reading.
Asia in the red, chips under pressure and futures weak
The first signal of the day comes from Asia, where the stock markets opened the week with a sharp decline. Japan’s Nikkei lost 2.2%, the MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan retreated 1.8% and Korea’s Kospi fell 7.6%, hit by semiconductor sell-offs. It is an important step because Korea had become one of the main thermometers of the rally linked to artificial intelligence.
The chip correction adds to the rise in oil and signals a more fragile market. After weeks dominated by enthusiasm for AI, semiconductors and big technology companies, investors are starting to measure the cost of capital, the sustainability of investments and the risk of yields rising again.
Western futures also followed the move. Contracts on the S&P 500 fell by 0.6%, those on the Nasdaq by 1.3%, while in Europe futures on the EuroStoxx 50 lost 0.9% and those on the Dax by 1%. The week therefore starts with a double pressure: energy on the rise and stocks in correction.
US CPI, the data that can change expectations on the Fed
The real macro test will come tomorrow with the June US CPI. The data on American inflation will be published at 8.30am in Washington, 2.30pm in Italy, and becomes even more relevant after the rise in oil prices. The market wants to understand whether prices are truly slowing or whether energy, services and wages can force the Fed to maintain a more restrictive line.
If the CPI surprises to the upside, Treasuries and the dollar could strengthen, reducing the room for a more accommodative Fed. If, however, the data confirms a cooling, investors could return to betting on a more prudent central bank, even in the presence of energy tensions.
The reaction of yields shows how sensitive the market is to the topic. The two-year Treasury rose to 4.2393%, its highest level since early 2025, while the dollar remained supported. These are signs that tell of a market less convinced of a rapid normalization of rates.
Wall Street banks, the test on profits, credit and margins
The week will not only be decisive for inflation. The quarterly reports of JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs also arrive on Tuesday; Morgan Stanley will follow on Wednesday. It is a very important step because the large American banks effectively open the accounting season and offer a snapshot of the state of the real and financial economy of the United States.
The market will mainly look at three elements: interest margin, credit quality and investment banking activities.
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan will be observed for trading and investment banking; Bank of America and Wells Fargo for margins and credit; Citigroup for the recovery and profitability path.
Treasury, dollar and BTP: the financial channel for Italy
For Italy the connection passes through returns. If the US CPI confirms more resistant inflation, Treasuries could remain under pressure and also drag European bonds. In this scenario, BTPs return to the center, because Italian debt is sensitive to both global rate movements and expectations on the ECB.
The dollar is another channel to monitor. A stronger greenback may reflect expectations of higher US rates and make some dollar-denominated imports, starting with energy, more expensive. The euro-dollar exchange rate therefore remains an important indicator for understanding the relationship between oil, imported inflation and European monetary policy.
Italian banks are also watching Wall Street carefully. The accounts of large American institutions will offer an initial benchmark on credit, margins and commissions. If the US banking sector gives robust signals, Piazza Affari may find indirect support. If prudence prevails, European banks could also suffer.
Markets tested between oil, inflation and banks
The week of July 13th therefore opens with three decisive tests. Brent towards $80 measures geopolitical risk and pressure on energy. The US CPI will tell whether US inflation allows the Fed to remain prudent or whether the market will have to price in stiffer rates. Wall Street banks will show whether credit, margins and financial activity remain strong enough to support earnings.
For European investors the point is to understand which signal will prevail. If oil and CPI fuel new tensions on yields, BTPs, utilities and interest-sensitive sectors may come back under pressure. If, however, inflation shows signs of cooling and American banks publish robust accounts, the market will be able to regain confidence.
