In the mid-60s, a young chemist named Gordon Moore – he would later be a founder of Intel and considered one of the pioneers of microelectronics – made a prediction that would shape the entire semiconductor industry for decades to come. His first “Moore’s law”published in 1965he argued that the number of transistors inside a microchip would double every yearensuring a corresponding increase in computing power. Transistors, essential components of microchips, allow the management and manipulation of electrical signals; the more transistors you can fit into a small space, the more powerful the device becomes. This prediction, initially intended for a period of just ten years, surprised Moore himself with its long-term validity, with the technology industry working tirelessly to meet it. But today, after almost sixty years, one wonders whether it still makes sense to talk about the validity of “Moore’s Law” and what its limits are. Well, according to what Moore himself declared in an interview dating back to 2005, his “Law” will last until transistors approach the size of atoms.
What is Moore’s law and what does it say: the simple explanation
In the 1965for a special issue of the magazine ElectronicsMoore was asked to predict developments in the semiconductor market for the next decade. Noting that the total number of components in these circuits had essentially doubled each year, Moore estimated that 1975 microcircuits would contain as many as 65,000 components per chip. Specifically, in his article “Putting More Components into Integrated Circuits,” Moore essentially stated:
The complexity of a microcircuit, measured for example by the number of transistors per chip, doubles every 18 months (and therefore quadruples every 3 years).
In the 1975when the growth rate began to slow, Moore revised his forecast slightly, suggesting a range of 18-24 months for doubling.
The limits of “Moore’s Law” today
Now we get to the crux of the matter: Is “Moore’s Law” still valid? This is a question that Moore himself has been asked several times. In the 2005answering this question posed to him during an interview, the famous American computer scientist declared:
In terms of size (of the transistors) you can see that we are approaching the size of atomswhich is a fundamental barrier, but it will take two or three generations before we get to that point, but it’s the most we’ve ever been able to see. We have another 10 or 20 years before we reach a fundamental limit. Then they will be able to make bigger chips and have transistor budgets in the billions.
In line with what was stated by the creator of “Moore’s law”, therefore, we can state that the limits of his law are essentially physical. The miniaturization of transistors involves a reduction in their supply voltage size (which can cause overheating and electromagnetic interference) and requires a extremely high precisionwhich is difficult to achieve as the size of the transistors decreases. And since it is not physically possible to make transistors smaller than individual atoms “Moore’s Law”, although still valid at the current state of affairs, is destined to be overcome sooner or later.
