This live broadcast closed at 6pm on Monday.
The Ftse Mib closes down 1.73% at 34,125 points, dragged down by the fall of Stellantis, which loses 14.7% after a drastic revision of forecasts on margins and cash flow. Iveco (-4%), Amplifon (-3.4%) and STM (-3%) also recorded heavy losses. Among the best stocks, Brunello Cucinelli (+1.8%), Saipem (+1.6%), Tim (+0.8%) and Unipol (+0.8%) stand out. The BTP/Bund spread remains stable at 133 points.
The main European stock exchanges follow the bearish trend: Paris falls by 2%, Frankfurt by 0.7% and London by 1%. The Euro Stoxx 50 loses 1.3%. Wall Street also shows negative signs, two hours after the opening, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.3%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq by 0.1%, awaiting the speech by the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, expected for 7pm on Monday 30 September.
Stock markets 12pm: Milan in deep red after Stellantis cut estimates
THE European stock markets continue to slide, with the automotive sector in difficulty. Frankfurt recorded a decline of 0.36%, Paris of 1.13%, London of 0.41% and Milan of 1.33%, settling at 34,265 points, with Stellantis in sharp decline (-13.10%). Furthermore, Leonardo, Nexi, Pirelli and STMicroelectronics also lost more than two percentage points.
Salvini: “Stellantis did the worst from all points of view”
The Minister of Infrastructure and Transport also spoke about the difficulties of Stellantis, regarding the profit warning announced this morning, Matteo Salvini: “I think they have done the worst that could be done from all points of view – he said – I am concerned about saving the remaining jobs by hastening the review of the ban on petrol and diesel cars and therefore pressuring the Commission European Union, for the review to take place as early as 2025. It is something that Germany and other countries are already asking for, because thinking of outlawing petrol and diesel cars in 10 years is madness, suicide”.
European stock exchanges 9am: Milan the worst due to the fall of Stellantis: the banks are also bad
China effect over? It seems so, given that the European stock markets all start with a minus sign today. Frankfurt marks a -0.31%, Paris a -0.54%, London a -0.15% e Milan a -0.68% to 34,491 points, currently the worst of the morning.
In Milan the worst is Stellantis which, initially unable to make a price, sells the 9% after having revised downwards the forecasts on operating margin and cash flow. The reduction in adjusted operating margin was approximately two-thirds due to corrective measures adopted in North America and lower-than-expected sales in the second half of the year in several regions.
Furthermore, industrial free cash flow is now forecast in a range of -5 to -10 billion euros, compared to the previous positive estimate. This change reflects both the expected decline in adjusted operating profit and the impact of temporarily higher working capital in the second half of 2024. Not only Stellantis but the entire Exor galaxy are affected, with drops for Iveco (-2, 43%) and Ferrari (-1.2%).
Looking at other stocks, the banking sector is also in difficulty. Nexi opens lower at 6.12 euros (-2.05%) after Barclays analysts cut their recommendation to “Underweight” from “Equal weight”followed by Banca Monte Paschi di Siena at 5.26 euros (-1.31%) and Bper Banca at 5.088 euros (-1.20%). Banco Bpm recorded a loss of 1.12%, with the stock falling to 6.16 euros, while Stmicroelectronics closed at 27.16 euros (-1.11%).
The luxury sector, strongly linked to the Chinese markets, remains positive, with Moncler (+1.7%) and Cucinelli (+1.2%). Oil stocks also benefit from the rise in crude oil, with Eni in the spotlight (+0.7%). Small step forward for Campari, which shows progress of 0.70%. Composed of Amplifon, which grows by a modest +0.67%.
Not just Stellantis, it’s a general crisis for the automotive industry
The session looks difficult for the European automotive sector, following a series of profit warnings issued by some of the main players in the sector in recent days. Besides Stellantis, too Aston Martin has revised downwards its results forecasts for 2024, following in the wake of the German Volkswagenwhich had already reduced its guidance on Friday. Additionally, Mercedes-Benz lowered its full-year profit margin target for the second time in two months, exacerbating the climate of uncertainty in the industry.
Aston Martin said it no longer expects to achieve positive free cash flow in the first half of 2024 and reduced its wholesale volume target by about a thousand vehicles to address some operational issues. Volkswagen, however, lowered its forecasts for 2024, with an expected profit margin of around 5.6%, compared to previous estimates of 6.5-7%. The German company attributed this decline to the disappointing performance of the auto division and the general deterioration of the macroeconomic environment.
Appointments of the week
This week will be full of events on the macroeconomic front. Today will open with preliminary data on inflation from Germany and Italy, while tomorrow will be the turn of data for the Eurozone.
In the United States, the agenda includes the ISM manufacturing index (out tomorrow), the services index (Thursday) and the employment data, expected on Friday, which will offer useful indications on the health of the American economy. On the central bank front, the presidents of the ECB and Fed, Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell, will speak today, although no surprises are expected from their speeches.
Spread at 133 points
The spread between BTP and Bund opens higher. At the beginning of the session, the yield differential between the benchmark 10-year BTP and the German Bund of the same duration stood at 133 points, up compared to the 131 points recorded at Friday’s close. The yield of the benchmark 10-year BTP is also slightly increasing, marking an initial value of 3.46%, compared to 3.45% at the previous closing.
