Italy continues to be one of the European countries most vulnerable to fluctuations in the natural gas market. This is what emerges from the latest briefing from the European Environment Agency (EEA), which photographs a situation in which dependence on gas continues to significantly influence the price of electricity. At the same time, however, the study highlights a particularly significant fact: in the first four months of 2026, the growth of renewable energy allowed European consumers to save billions of euros on the wholesale electricity market, largely offsetting the cost of 13 billion caused by the volatility of gas.
How much gas volatility cost in 2026
The first months of 2026 were characterized by international tensions which had repercussions on energy markets. As has already happened in previous years, the price of natural gas recorded strong fluctuations, rapidly affecting the cost of electricity as well.
According to EEA analysis, gas volatility cost European consumers a total of 13 billion euros between January and April. This increase in costs derives from the fact that gas continues to determine the marginal price of electricity at many hours of the day. In fact, even when a significant part of the electricity is produced from renewable sources, it is often the gas power plant needed to satisfy the last portion of demand that establishes the price paid on the entire electricity market.
As long as the system continues to depend significantly on gas-fired plants, any increase in raw materials will inevitably continue to be reflected in the bills of families and businesses.
How much do renewables save?
In fact, the study by the European Environment Agency estimates that in the first four months of 2026, renewable sources generated savings of around 29 billion euros on the wholesale electricity market. If the gas volatility bill was high, without the growth of wind and photovoltaic it would have been much worse.
The effect is simple to understand. The more energy is produced through sun, wind and other renewable sources, the less the use of gas-fired power plants becomes. Consequently, the impact of methane price fluctuations on the final cost of electricity also decreases.
For this reason the EEA defines renewable energy as a real one “macroeconomic insurance”. Increasing their share means making the entire European economy less vulnerable to international energy crises.
Europe is still too dependent on fossil fuel imports
Despite the important progress made in the energy transition, the European Union still maintains a strong dependence on foreign countries for the supply of fossil fuels. In 2024, around 85% of the gas consumed in the Union was imported, as were 97% of petroleum products.
This dependence represents one of the main factors of economic vulnerability of the continent. In fact, every geopolitical crisis, reduction in supplies or international tension can quickly translate into an increase in energy prices.
In the last fifteen years, however, the European electricity system has changed profoundly thanks to the development of renewable sources. In the first sixteen weeks of 2026, wind, photovoltaic and other renewable energies covered 44% of European electricity production, a share almost double that recorded in 2010.
And this growth has already contributed to reducing the use of gas power plants and mitigating the impact of fossil fuel fluctuations on the price of electricity.
Because Italy is among the countries most exposed to energy shocks
Italy represents one of the most critical cases analyzed by the European Environment Agency. In the period examined, gas determined the price of electricity in 66% of the hours, one of the highest values in the entire European Union. Only Poland presents a similar situation, with gas being decisive in 63% of hours.
This means that the Italian electricity market continues to be particularly affected by fluctuations in the price of methane.
Since 2000, national electricity production has remained substantially stable, even recording a slight decrease of 2%. At the same time, dependence on electricity imports has increased, especially from France and Switzerland. In the first months of 2026, gas still covered 53% of Italian electricity production, while low-emission sources stopped at 40%.
A composition of the energy mix of this type inevitably makes the system much more sensitive to variations in the international price of gas.
In Spain, however, where national electricity production has increased by 28% since 2000 thanks to investments in wind and photovoltaic, today 79% of electricity comes from low-carbon sources, while gas represents only 16% of production. As a result, gas set the price of energy in only 9% of the hours analyzed.
The result is also evident in prices: the average cost of electricity in Spain stood at around 43 euros per MWh, well below the levels recorded in Italy.
The scenario to 2030: lower prices with the energy transition
According to the European Agency’s analysis, if Member States respect the objectives set by their respective energy plans and accelerate the development of renewable sources, the share of production from renewable energy would reach around 68% by 2030, allowing the average wholesale electricity price to drop to around 71 euros per MWh.
If, however, the energy transition slows down and the system continues to depend heavily on gas, the average price could reach up to 160 euros per MWh, i.e. approximately 125% more than in the scenario characterized by full development of renewable sources.
