Having archived a top 2025, the first quarter of 2026 introduces operators into a more complex phase for the markets and for families’ investment choices. The slowdown was partly predictable: after a year of strong mass expansion, the new context presents less brilliant prospects, higher rates for longer and markets more exposed to volatility.
New factors of instability have been added to this picture: US action in Venezuela, the escalation in the Middle East and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have reignited fears over global energy and trade routes. In the wake of all this, the rise in energy prices brought back the risk of inflationary pressures just as the world economy slowed towards a more moderate pace.
The return of the trade-off between inflation and growth has made the action of central banks more prudent, government yields in the euro area have risen and global stock indices have been affected by a worsening of sentiment.
Excellent hold for the masses and net collection
According to the AIPB update, Private Banking assets stood at 1,412 billion euros in the first quarter of 2026, essentially stable compared to the end of 2025. The quarterly change (-0.2%) reflects a negative market effect of 25 billion while net funding reached the highest level of the last twelve months, standing at 17 billion euros. Added to these are 5 billion in ordinary perimeter changes, which contribute to the overall stability of the sector in a more complex start to the year compared to 2025.
On an annual basis, volumes grew by 9.6%, confirming the solidity of the sector. However, the context is more challenging: weaker Italian growth, risky inflation again, persistent rates and geopolitical uncertainty. In this scenario, Private Banking takes on a key role in accompanying customers in a more delicate phase of the cycle.
The new wallet compass
In the first quarter of 2026 there is no return to liquidity, but greater selectivity. The administered sector declines slightly (-0.5%) and is the most affected by the market effect, but attracts the majority of new funding (10.5 billion), supported by interest in bonds and coupons.
The equity component recorded a contraction of -6.8 billion, in the wake of greater volatility, worsening sentiment and uncertainties about growth prospects. However, the progress of ETFs/ETNs/ETCs continues, strengthening their weight in private portfolios.
Managed funding has also been affected by the market effect, but continues to attract flows. Mutual funds fell by 4.8 billion, while asset management grew by 2 billion, confirming their role in the most complex phases.
The insurance sector maintains a positive dynamic thanks to net inflows and changes in scope, offering protection and stability in a context of economic uncertainty and family planning.
