The one just concluded was a week of high tension and volatility on the financial marketswhich began with a market crash on Monday, with heavy selling triggered by growing fears of a recession in the United States after disappointing labor market readings (with the Fed seen late in easing monetary tightening), by the strengthening of the yen due to the rate hike decided by the BoJ (with the rush to close carry trade positions) and by the gains on big technology companies (with Warren Buffet who halved his position in Apple). In the following sessions, the lists then recovered ground, especially in the United States, with other macroeconomic data that eased concerns about the US cycle.
These movements have however raised the stakes even further. Waiting for Central Banks’ Moves in Septemberwith the Fed and the ECB now seen as certain lower interest rateswith benefits also for the real estate market, which has been held back for some time by the high cost of money.
The main indexes
The real estate sector had a negative week at European level, where the index STOXX Europe 600 Real Estate reported a -1.2% on a weekly basis, showing a worse performance than the market, given that the STOXX Europe 600 index closed at parity.
A better performance was achieved by Italy, where the index FTSE Italia All Share Real Estate brought home an increase of more than 4%, clearly outperforming the FTSE MIB market index which lost around 4%.
Real estate stocks on Borsa Italiana
Among the real estate companies listed on Pizza Affari, a positive week was recorded for Risanamento, up almost 10%, and IGD (over 6%). Little movement Living In. Below Gabetti and Aedes (drops between 1 and 2%). Again worse Brioschi (-3%), Next Re (-4%) and Dotstay (-4%).
Few operational ideas during the week, with the month of August typically seeing thinning stock market trading and a lack of corporate communications, especially considering that the earnings season has come to an end (for those companies that report their June 30 results between the end of July and the beginning of August).
Macroeconomic data
The most interesting indications on the macroeconomic front came from the United States. On Thursday it emerged that the mortgage applications in the United States (in the week of August 2) recorded a increase of 6.9%, after -3.9% the previous week. Going into detail, the index relating to refinancing requests increased by 15.9%, while the index relating to new applications recorded an increase of 0.8%. According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA), in addition, the rates on thirty-year mortgages fell to 6.55% from the previous 6.82%.
On Thursday, Freddie Mac, a government-backed private U.S. company that specializes in issuing mortgages and reselling them on the secondary market, reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States reached 6.47% over the past week.Mortgage rates fell this week to their lowest level in more than a year “following a likely overreaction to a less than favorable jobs report and financial market turmoil for an economy that remains on solid footing,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac.
Market research
In the last few days some interesting data has also come out on theItalyalthough referring to last year. In fact, Istat reported that in 2023 the real estate marketwith 933,919 notarial sales agreements, recorded a downward trend compared to the previous year (-8.1%). The decline affects the housing sector (-8.9%), with negative variations higher than the national average in the Centre (-11.6%) and in the North-West (-11.3%); the decline is milder in the North-East (-8.4%) and in the South (-6.2%), while the Islands remain substantially stable (+0.4%). The economic sector grows overall by 6.8%, driven by the North-East (+12.0%); the expansion is more moderate in the other territorial areas: +7.2% Islands, +6.2% South, +5.8% North-West and +2.9% Centre. Furthermore, notarial agreements for mortgages, loans and other obligations with the creation of a real estate mortgage (308,910 in 2023) are down 27.1% compared to 2022. The decrease mainly affects the North-West (-30.0%) and the Center (-29.2%), followed by the North-East (-24.8%), the South (-23.8%) and the Islands (-20.1%).
The attention of the research centers then turned to the holiday period. According to the data processed by SoloAffitti, the current one is a salty summer also for holiday home rentals: this year there has been an average increase in bookings of 13% and an increase in prices of 8% compared to summer 2023, with an average price per night of 210 euros per person. 25% of those interviewed reported that the season started later than the previous year: the uncertain weather in June slowed down the start of the tourist season in many locations and the increasingly widespread trend of last-minute bookings amplifies the effect of the weather and contingent events on the trend of bookings. The long-established trend of hit-and-run holidays is confirmed again this year: for almost half of the bookings (48.6%), in fact, the average length of stays refers to the weekend only or in any case to no more than 3 nights; bookings refer to the week next, with 28.6%, while 14.3% of bookings cover an entire month; the “cut” of the 2-week stay is less widespread, representing only 8.6% of the booked stays.
