“Trump trade” and risks for Italy

For the first time since April Bitcoin rises above 72 thousand dollars (72,408), an increase of 4%. The crypto-asset – according to Bloomberg reports – is driven by speculation on the presidential elections in the United States. Other crypto-assets are also rising, with Ethereum gaining 5% and Binance 1.5%.

Trump Trade ignites bitcoin

Bitcoin’s surge is largely attributed to the so-called “Trump trade”a financial market trend that reflects the scenario in which the Republican candidate Donald Trump will win the US presidential elections on November 5th. Starting last summer, when Trump, guest of honor at the 2024 Bitcoin conference in Nashville, pledged to make the United States “the crypto capital of the planet” and positioning Bitcoin as a global superpower, the Republican candidate has continued to be particularly supportive of cryptocurrencies. Among the signals sent by Trump to the market is also the promise, if he is re-elected, to fire the president of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Gary Gensler, replacing him with “a president who will build the future, instead of blocking it”. “Bitcoin investors – notes Euronews – have accumulated assets linked to Bitcoin, speculating on the fact that US regulations on cryptocurrencies will be more favorable under the Trump administration than those of Kamala Harris. Recent polls indicate that the race between the two candidates is extremely close, but betting markets have shifted in favor of a Trump victory, influencing the movement of financial markets towards assets that could benefit from the proposed political changes.”

Italy towards increase in tax rate on crypto-assets

If the USA aims to become the home of crypto, Italy slows down on Bitcoin. The maneuver signed by Meloni provides, in fact, starting from January 2025, an increase from 26% to 42% in the taxation of capital gains and proceeds deriving from operations in Bitcoin and other crypto-assets with an exemption threshold of 2 thousand euros. An increase which, according to estimates, will bring a greater revenue of 16.7 million compared to the current 27 million euros.

Risks for the Italian digital economy

The tax increase on crypto-assets risks creating a fiscal imbalance with respect to other financial assets, discouraging investors and entrepreneurs and encouraging the relocation of activities. “A risk – explains Gianluigi Guida, CEO of Binance – which translates into a potential brain and capital drain, with talents and companies that would seek more favorable contexts, cthus compromising the competitiveness of Italy noin the global digital economy. Furthermore, the effects of this policy could also impact companies operating in the crypto-assets sector. Reduced demand for products and services related to crypto-assets could in fact reduce the revenues and taxes generated by business income. If companies in the sector were to perceive the regulatory environment as excessively onerous, they could, in fact, evaluate the possibility of transferring their activities elsewhere, thus reducing job creation and, consequently, the economic and social related industries in Italy”.