The European stock exchanges close the last session of the week in a cautious tone, suffering the impact of some profit takingas the weekly performance is largely positive. A week conditioned by the midweek holiday of theIndependence Daywhich kept Wall Street’s beacon off on Thursday.
The markets have also been made volatile by the elections which are taking place everywhere: this was the week of Francewhich in the first round confirmed the strong growth of the far right of Marine Le Pen, but also of the United Kingdomwhich has given a vigorous turn to domestic politics, sending Starmer’s center-left to government. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ocean, the great Trump-Biden confrontation has cast a shadow on the re-election of the current US President.
The macroeconomic scenario
The week opened with the usual readings of the Manufacturing SMEswhich saw the Eurozone purchasing managers’ index fall for the fourth time in the last five months to 45.8 in June, from a 14-month high of 47.3 in May. The US manufacturing ISM, meanwhile, came in at 48.7 from 49.2 in the previous month, also falling short of analysts’ expectations for a rise to 49.8.
Different picture for the service industrywhich continues to expand: the Eurozone tertiary sector PMI stood at 52.8 points, above expectations and the preliminary estimate (52.6). The US non-manufacturing ISM rose to 53.8 points, from 49.4 points in the previous month, above expectations (51 points).
Foa also highlights the key data Eurozone inflationwhich confirms a slowdown in price growth and a gradual return to 2.5% from 2.6% the previous month.
The week ended with numbers on occupied USAwhich showed an unemployment rate rising to 4.1%, but an increase in non-farm payrolls of 206 thousand units, which follows the 218 created in May and exceeds the market expectations, which indicated an increase of 191 thousand jobs. The figure is instead lower than expected in the private sector: 136 thousand jobs were created, against the 193 thousand revised in May and the 160 expected by the market.
ECB and Fed also in the spotlightwho met at the ECB Forum in Sintra (Portugal). Walking on parallel but not communicating paths, Powell and Lagarde ruled out, for different reasons, an imminent rate cut in July, reinforcing expectations for a reduction from September onwards. The Fed Minutes released mid-week also confirmed a restrictive approach to the US central bank’s monetary policy.
Spreads, currencies and commodities
The Euro shows a positive performance, reaching around 1.0828 against the greenback, with a growth of 0.15% during the week. Also noteworthy this week is the progress of the GBP which, in the post-election period, gained ground, ending the week around 1.28 USD, up 1.2% on a weekly basis.
L’Gold is on track to close this week at $2,385 an ounce, after having come within a whisker of the $2,400 threshold, bringing a 2.45% increase to the bench. petrolium American WTI rose to $84.24 a barrel, posting a 3% gain on a weekly basis.
Weekly stock market performance
A look at the weekly performance highlights that the Cac-40 Paris remains at the top with a rise of more than 1.9%, rewarded by a Election outcome judged “reassuring” by the operators, having left the far right without a clear majority in parliament. Good also Milanwith the FTSE MIB index up more than 2.4%, thanks to the brilliant performance of the banking sector on speculations for the sector risk. Advances Brussels which looked beyond one percentage point and the Dax of Frankfurtup about one and a half points. Stay behind London with a weekly gain of 0.3%, having expressed caution ahead of theelection outcome arrived only on Friday. The Erostoxx 50 index rose 1%.
Even the American indices they are getting ready to close the week on the riseThe Nasdaq 100 gained 2.88%, the S&P 500 gained 1.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrials rose less than half a percentage point.
The best and worst at Piazza Affari
Among the best titles of the week we can mention Montepaschi, which gains over 11% on the rekindling of speculations related to the sale of the Treasury’s share. The banking sector is lively with Unicredit which jumps by more than 7% and BPER Bank which rises by 6%, after the news of the increase in Unipol’s shareholding, in view of the possibility of extraordinary operations with another bank with good prospects. It also flies STM (+7%), influenced by the good performance of the artificial intelligence chip sector and by the excellent forecasts made by South Korean Samsung Electronics. At the end of the last session, the stock exited the Top 5 TIMwhich is affected by some gains after the success recorded on the conclusion of the sale of NetCo (now FiberCop) to the consortium led by KKR and participated by the MEF.
On the worst side, some defensive players stand out, such as Amplifier which lost 7.6% (about 6.5% on Friday alone) after the cut in the Target price made by Bank of America (BofA) to 40 euros per share from the previous 42 euros, due to a relatively flat business trend in the EU in the second quarter. Down also Brunello Cucinelliwhich fell by 4%, reflecting a somewhat opaque fashion and luxury sector. Among the worst performers were also Campari, Saipem and Stellantis with losses of 1-2%.
